Summary of remarks prepared for the panel “South Caucasus Frozen Conflicts: Overview and Comparison,” Frozen Conflicts Workshop, Centre for International Relations, Queen’s University, 20 April 2007

This report is a summary synthesis of previous research (Cutler 2003) examining four factors in the Georgian conflicts (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Javakhetia, Ajaria) to see what general propositions may inductively be generated. Indicative binary variables that operationalize concepts from Tishkov (1997, explicated by Cutler 2000; also Cutler 2004) that includes socio-economic state-level variables (organized crime and migration due to economic problems) and energy-related international variables (hydrocarbons and power-line security).

Introduction to South Caucasus Frozen Conflicts

The possibility of a federal solution has promoted success for Javakhetia but not for Abkhazia or Tskhinvali. The presence of an irredentism/diaspora has promoted success for Javakhetia but not for Abkhazia. The presence of a local strongman has promoted success for Ajaria but not for Abkhazia. South Ossetian elites have in the past greeted favourably the prospect of federal status within Georgia. Neither traditional federal nor even confederate arrangements will solve the Abkhazia problem. The districts comprising Javakhetia are part of a larger administrative region called Samtskhe-Javakhetia; Armenia and Georgia have taken steps to ameliorate the region’s difficult economic situation. Categorically, Mountainous Karabagh is most identical with the Abkhazia case.

A previous study of the four conflict situations in Georgia yielded the following hypothesis where “success” signifies the avoidance of outbreak of militarized hostilities (the cases of Ajara and Javakhetia, contrasted with the cases of Abkhazia and South Ossetia).

Hypothesis on South Caucasus Frozen Conflicts

HYPOTHESIS: “Success” is conditioned by (1) the possibility of arriving at a federal arrangement between the ethnic territory and the central government of the state on which that territory is located, plus either (2a) the presence of irredentism/diaspora coupled with the absence of a local strongman or (2b) the absence of irredentism/diaspora coupled with the presence of a local strongman; but not both (2a) and (2b).

Examination

In Javakhetia, for example, there is (1) the possibility of a federal arrangement within Georgia and (2a) the presence of an ethnic Armenian irredentism together with a significant worldwide Armenian diaspora; but there is no local strongman. In Ajaria, there was the presence of a local strongman; but there is no irredentism or diaspora at work. In Nagorno-Karabakh, the local leadership rejects (1) the possibility of a federal arrangement with Azerbaijan; and there is both (2a) the influence of a diaspora or an irredentism and (2b) a local strongman. State-level socio-economic issues, i.e., organized crime and migration due to ethnic problems, have been secondary. The list of six issue-areas (ethnic conflict, fundamentalism, organized crime, migration due to economic problems, oil, and power-line security) is a good a useful typology of sources of crisis in the regions of crisis overall, but the consideration of the return of the Meskhetian Turks shows that it needs to be nuanced through the further inclusion of such factors as environmental constraints, resource scarcities, demography, and mass-media influence.

Works Cited

Tishkov, V. 1997. Ethnicity, Nationalism and Conflict in and after the Soviet Union: The Mind Aflame. London: Sage Publications for United Nations Research Institute for Social Development.

Cutler, R.M. 2000. “Policy Options for Resolving Post-Soviet Ethnic Conflict,” Central Asian Survey 19, nos. 3–4 (September/December 2000): 451–468.

_________. 2003. “Transnational Policies for Conflict Reduction and Prevention in the South Caucasus,” Perspectives on Global Development and Technology 2, nos. 3–4 (December 2003): 615–633.

_________. 2004. “The Sources and Regions of Crisis in the Caucasus,” pages 105–126 in Examination of the Regions of Crisis from the Perspectives of Turkey, NATO and the European Union, and Their Impacts on the Security of Turkey, edited by N.Reşun Ödün (Ankara: Turkish General Staff Printing House, 2004).