South Ossetia Conflict Profile
A “Self-determination Conflict Profile” summarizing its history from the 19th century, the role of the United States, proposed solutions and an evaluation of prospects for the conflict’s settlement.
Continue reading →Category Archives: Russia
Why Belarus-Russia Relations Matter
A dangerous blind spot in the incoming administration’s view of Russian affairs is its inadequate understanding of the significance of the newly independent states (NIS). The unanticipated consequences of such policy blindness are exemplified by developments in the 1990s in … Continue reading →
How Shah Deniz Gas Is Changing the Equation (2/9)
Fall-out continues from the Shah Deniz gas find offshore from Azerbaijan. Several weeks ago, part one of this series examined developments around the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) from Turkmenistan, and Iran’s problems with Turkmenistani gas imports. The evident withdrawal of … Continue reading →
The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, Blue Stream, and Turkey
For much of the period since the November 1999 OSCE summit in Istanbul, this column has principally discussed developments concerning the Baku-Ceyhan main export pipeline (MEP). I wish to shift gears here for an extended review of recent events related … Continue reading →
Kazakhstan Ethnic Groups: Recipe for a Shatterbelt In Central Eurasia
Nearly two weeks ago, twenty-two individuals (twelve citizens of Russia and ten ethnic-Russian citizens of Kazakhstan) were arrested in Ust-Kamenogorsk in East Kazakhstan province. They were charged with planning an uprising to seize political power in the province and proclaim … Continue reading →
Ethnic Armenian Javakhetia: Flashpoint or Bottleneck?
This commentary provides background on Javakhetia, the ethnically Armenian region in southern Georgia, in order to establish that is not the next Karabakh and not another Abkhazia, and therefore neither flashpoint nor bottleneck for oil pipelines crossing the Caucasus from the Caspian to the Black Sea. Stability in Javakhetia is likely to continue, although in the long term there is a wild card: the Meskhetian Turks, a people deported by Stalin whose has been mandated to their homeland, which lies west of Javakhetia proper and east of Ajaria.
Continue reading →Instability in the Balance: The Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline
The signing of the Istanbul Protocol on the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline at the recent OSCE meeting was highly important politically to the leaders who signed it. But the project will in the long run be more important to the peoples of … Continue reading →
BTC Pipeline Continues at Center of Negotiations
Transit of oil through the Baku-Novorossiisk pipeline continues to be a problematic affair. Since the beginning of the month, the pipeline has been shut down three times. The reasons given are the age of the Russian section of the pipeline … Continue reading →
BTC pipeline politics, Turkmenistan, and Iran
The new year has already established two new trends in Caspian Sea geo-economics and BTC pipeline politics as well as confirmed an old one. Two important new trends are an improvement in Turkmenistan’s finances and the refusal of BTC pipeline … Continue reading →
Москва рискует изоляцию от Кавказа
[This page renders a post from the legacy blog from the legacy academic website, first published in Независимая газета, 16 January 1998, page 7.] … Continue reading →